IVANS Commercial Lines Pricing June 2026

Research evidence excerpt

IVANS Commercial Lines Pricing June 2026

Update

July 21, 2026 06:12 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLCMInsurance - Property & Casualty | North America Bob Jian Huang

Equity Analyst

IVANS Commercial Lines Pricing Bob.Huang@morganstanley.comDaniel Lee, ACAS +1 212 761-6136

Research Associate

Daniel.Lee4@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-0219

June 2026 Siddhant Shah

Sid.Shah@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-2603

IVANS pricing data saw slightly lower MoM pricing for most

Insurance - Property & Casualty

major commercial lines of businesses in June 2026. Due to North America

strong industry profitability so far this year, we expect continued Industry View Attractive

overall pricing deceleration in the near term.

Rates going down in IVANS pricing data. Commercial Auto pricing continues to

decelerate to ~4.6% (down 3.8pt YoY), while General Liability remains steady at

~5.3%. Umbrella also saw a 1.1pt YoY decrease to ~7.6%, while Workers' Comp

pricing remains relatively unchanged at -1.4%. We expect near-term property pricing

deterioration, followed by terms & conditions (T&C) erosion, while casualty pricing

should decelerate more slowly as pricing is still needed due to multi-year social

inflation fears in the US. In our view, this should support a longer-term soft market

(Insurance - Property & Casualty: Soft Market 2029+? This Time is Already Different

(4 Jun 2026)) as strong earnings flow through, building excess capital in the primary

and reinsurance segments.

Exhibit 1: IVANS pricing data continued to see sequential declines for all the

major commercial lines in recent months

IVANS Commercial Renewal Rate Change

15.0% Comm'l Property General Liability

Comm'l Auto Business Owners Policy (BOP)

12.5% Umbrella Workers' Comp

10.0%

7.5%

5.0%

2.5%

0.0%

-2.5%

-5.0%