Risk Reward Update

Research evidence excerpt

Risk Reward Update

UpdateM

Risk Reward – Marsh & McLennan Cos Inc (MRSH.N)

KEY EARNINGS INPUTS

Drivers Dec 2025 Dec 2026e Dec 2027e Dec 2028e

Organic Revenue Growth (%) 3.7 4.0 4.0 4.7

Adj. Operating Margin (%) 27.1 27.1 27.3 27.4

Operating ROE (%) 31.4 34.2 33.6 32.8

INVESTMENT DRIVERS RISKS TO PT/RATING MS ESTIMATES VS. CONSENSUS

Organic growth RISKS TO UPSIDE FY Dec 2026e

P&C pricing cycle Improving macro environment 10.44 Economic environment Durable P&C pricing environment EPS

M&A integration Better organic growth and margin expansion ($) 10.20 10.50

10.39 Larger share buybacks

GLOBAL REVENUE EXPOSURE Synergies from tuck-in acquisitions

Improved interest rate environment should be 8,090

APAC, ex Japan, Mainland earnings accretive EBITDA 7,321 8,853 10-20% China and India ($, mm)

10-20% Europe ex UK RISKS TO DOWNSIDE 8,078

10-20% UK Sharp global economic slowdown

50-60% North America Declining P&C pricing impacting organic growth 5,006 Net income

Poorly executed M&A 4,152 7,824Source: Morgan Stanley Research Estimate ($, mm)

Declining interest rate environment would be a 5,067View explanation of regional hierarchies here

headwind

MS ALPHA MODELS Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates

OWNERSHIP POSITIONING Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

2/5 24 Month 5/5 3 Month Inst. Owners, % Active 58.8%

BEST Horizon MOST Horizon

HF Sector Long/Short Ratio 1.4x

Source: Refinitiv, FactSet, Morgan Stanley Research; 1 is HF Sector Net Exposure 7.5%

the highest favored Quintile and 5 is the least favored

Quintile Refinitiv; MSPB Content. Includes certain hedge fund

exposures held with MSPB. Information may be

inconsistent with or may not reflect broader market

trends. Long/Short Ratio = Long Exposure / Short

exposure. Sector % of Total Net Exposure = (For a