June Trade: Orders Reaccelerate Amid Resilient Export Growth

Research evidence excerpt

June Trade: Orders Reaccelerate Amid Resilient Export Growth

Update

July 21, 2026 11:53 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley Asia LimitedMTaiwan | Asia Pacific Kathleen Oh

Chief Korea/Taiwan Economist

June Trade: Orders Reaccelerate Kathleen.Oh@morganstanley.comMorgan Stanley India Company Private Limited +852 2848-7340

Priyan Mody

EconomistAmid Resilient Export Growth Priyan.Mody@morganstanley.com +91 22 6996-1855

Shreya Singh

While export growth in June undershot expectations, export Economist

Shreya.Singh@morganstanley.com +91 22 6995-1521

orders reaccelerated sharply, pointing to resilient demand ahead.

Strong AI and data center demand continued to support ICT

shipments, and the robust order pipeline points to another solid

print in July alongside faster import growth.

Data: Export orders accelerated to 59.4%Y in June, reaching US$95.3bn (our

estimate: 49.5%; consensus: 49.7%) up from 47.2% in May, supporting the shipment

outlook. For the full month, exports rose 40.3%Y to US$74.8bn, below our 65.8%

estimate and the 50.1% consensus forecast, while imports increased 51.8%Y, below

our 61.2% estimate but above the 46.3% consensus forecast. Exhibit 1 : Taiwan customs trade and export

order trends

As a result, the trade surplus narrowed to US$12.2bn from US$17.9bn (our estimate: Taiwan trade data (Jun 2026)

US$21.8bn; consensus: US$18.3bn). US orders were strongest at 83.6%Y; ASEAN Exports growth, %Y Actual40.3 Previous51.7month MSe65.8 Consensus50.1

Imports growth, %Y 51.8 54.8 61.2 46.3

(52.3%) and Europe (53.9%) strengthened, while Hong Kong & Mainland China TradeExportbalance,Orders growth,USD bn%Y 12.259.4 17.947.2 21.849.5 18.349.7

remained steady at 37.2%. By product, electronic product orders rose 79.9%Y and Source: Ministry of Finance, Haver, Morgan Stanley Research