Julius Baer Gruppe AG (BAER.S): Thoughts Post-1H26 - Negative Reaction Understandable Given Raised Expectations

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Julius Baer Gruppe AG (BAER.S): Thoughts Post-1H26 - Negative Reaction Understandable Given Raised Expectations

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21 Jul 2026 07:12:19 ET │ 11 pages

Julius Baer Gruppe AG (BAER.S)

Thoughts Post-1H26 - Negative Reaction Understandable Given Raised

Expectations

CITI'S TAKE Buy

Price (20 Jul 26 17:30) SFr73.72 Baer shares have fallen 4% following 1H26 results, which we view as purely

Target price SFr81.00 de-rating, since we estimate broadly unchanged medium-term consensus

earnings. Still, the reaction seems understandable: unquantified de- Expected share price return 9.9%

risking headwinds imply even more back-end-loaded NNM trajectory than Expected dividend yield 4.1%

previously expected, particularly after press reports suggesting Baer could Expected total return 13.9%

be preparing to increase risk appetite (SwissInfo, 2 July). Beyond flows, Market Cap SFr15,186M

RM hiring appears more challenging, while visibility remains limited on US$18,904M

resolution of FINMA’s investigation and restarting of capital return. Cost

control is helpful, but unlikely to drive significant estimate revisions.

Overall, the update is unhelpful near-term and requires greater faith in

future execution, especially on growth initiatives. That said, we believe the Nicholas HermanAC

core bull case remains intact, supported by potential catalysts including +44-20-7986-4203

improving underlying NNM trends, further profitability gains (and possible nicholas.herman@citi.com

guidance upgrades), and eventual resumption of capital returns. Valuation Andrew Coombs, CFA

remains undemanding at around 10x FY28 P/E, or 9–9.5x excluding andrew.coombs@citi.com

surplus capital.

Hannah Leivdal

hannah.leivdal@citi.com

Lack Of Clarity On Outlook Unhelpful – The 1H26 net new money (NNM) print was