Julius Baer | Europe 1H26: Cost beat, but watch comment on 2027 NNM

Research evidence excerpt

Julius Baer | Europe 1H26: Cost beat, but watch comment on 2027 NNM

Update

July 21, 2026 06:13 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+MJulius Baer | Europe Giulia Aurora Miotto, CFA

Equity Analyst

1H26: Cost beat, but watch Giulia.Aurora.Miotto@morganstanley.comNed Tidmarsh +44 20 7425-5344

Research Associate

Ned.Tidmarsh@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-0122

comment on 2027 NNM

Julius Baer (BAER.S, BAER SE)

Diversified Financials | Switzerland

AlphaSignals Earnings Reaction

Stock Rating Underweight

Unchanged Modest upside Largely unchanged Industry View In-Line

Impact to our thesis Financial results versus consensus Direction of next 12-month Price target SFr 66.00

consensus EPS Shr price, close (Jul 20, 2026) SFr 73.72

52-Week Range SFr 75.42- 51.76

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research Mkt cap, curr (mn) SFr 16,066

Net debt (12/26e) (mn)* -

EV, curr (mn)* SFr 16,068

Key Takeaways

* = GAAP or approximated based on GAAP

NNM was a touch above consensus, AuM in line

Cost beat drives a 3% PBT beat for 1H26 (11% for the last 2 months)

Capital came in 10bps better vs consensus

Results are good, and we could see a small positive reaction…

…yet new comment that risk/compliance framework's implementation will

persist into 2027 & sustainability of cost beat will be in focus during the call

1H26 results summary: 1H26 underlying PBT is ~3% ahead of consensus (11% ahead

of consensus for 2M), as a touch weaker revenues are more than compensated by

better costs. NNM was a bit better than consensus (3.1% vs 2.5%). There is no

buyback and no update on the FINMA enforcement action. 2028 targets from the

recent CMD are reiterated, although the bank flags that the risk/compliance

framework's implementation will persist into 2027. While the first reaction may be a