Kyowa Kirin (4151.T) Background of share price formation

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Kyowa Kirin (4151.T) Background of share price formation

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21 Jul 2026 01:54:37 ET │ 10 pages

Kyowa Kirin (4151.T)

Background of share price formation

CITI'S TAKE

Sell The shares fell sharply immediately after suspension of rocatinlimab

development on March 3, but have now recovered most of the decline. We Price (17 Jul 26 15:30) ¥2,654.5

view current price levels as overvalued with two gaps between the market Target price ¥2,000.0

and our thinking. The first is expectations for a TOB by parent Kirin Expected share price return -24.7%

Holdings. Our Kirin Holdings analyst Hiroki Watanabe thinks the Expected dividend yield 2.6%

probability of the pharmaceutical business becoming a wholly owned Expected total return -22.0%

subsidiary is low near-term, given Kirin Holdings' strong commitment to

Market Cap ¥1,389,860M growth investment in health science (see additional comments below).

US$8,613M The second is expectations for KHK-4951, which is nearing Phase 2

completion. We forecast peak annual sales of ¥80bn, royalties of ¥12bn,

and a per-share value ¥100. While the global AMD/DME intravitreal

injection market is worth ¥2trn, we see a mild contribution from eye drops. Hidemaru YamaguchiAC

+81-3-6776-4620

Additional comments from Hiroki Watanabe — Kirin Holdings aims to expand hidemaru.yamaguchi@citi.com

health science revenue to ¥500bn in CY35from ¥257bn in CY26. This plan includes Hiroki Watanabe

organic growth plus M&A of ¥200bn-¥300bn (our estimate). Therefore, we expect +81-3-6776-8296

Kirin Holdings will prioritize expanding its capital-intensive health science business hiroki.watanabe@citi.com

over making its pharmaceutical business a wholly owned subsidiary.

Our view on KHK-4951 — This drug aims to treat AMD/DME via eye drops, but there