Model Update & Q2 Preview

Research evidence excerpt

Model Update & Q2 Preview

Update

July 21, 2026 06:58 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+MADNOC Gas Plc | Europe Ricardo Rezende, CFA

Equity Analyst

Model Update & Q2 Preview Ricardo.Rezende@morganstanley.comSylvia C Richards +44 20 7677-9886

Research Associate

Sylvia.Richards@morganstanley.com +44 20 7677-3354

Giulia Faro

What's changed? We update our model post 1Q26 results, incorporating the latest Giulia.Faro@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-7581

commodity price forecasts from Platts. For the domestic gas segment, we revise

ADNOC Gas Plc (ADNOCGAS.AD, ADNOCGAS DH)

down production volumes for the rest of the year following the incident at Habshan.

EEMEA - Oil & Gas | United Arab Emirates

Volumes should reach 500/520/540 TBTU in Q2/3/4 as repairs progress, from a

Stock Rating Overweight

previous range of 540-630 TBTU. Given reduced domestic demand in light of the Industry View No Rating

Price target AED 4.20

regional conflict, we also lower sales as a % of production to 80%/90%/95% for

Shr price, close (Jul 20, 2026) AED 3.30

Q2/3/4. This reflects our expectations for a gradual return in demand as the region 52-Week Range AED 3.76- 3.12

Mkt cap, curr (mn) US$68,931

stabilises. We forecast unit margin growth in Q2 at -10% given lower pricing, which Net debt (12/26e) (mn)* US$(1,403)

rises to a normalised rate of 5% again for the rest of the year. For the trading and EV, curr (mn)* US$64,725

exports segment, we similarly revise down production and sales volumes for Q2, but * = GAAP or approximated based on GAAP

forecast a sharp recovery from Q3 onwards - back to semi-normalised levels of 230 Fiscal Year Ending 12/25 12/26e 12/27e 12/28e

TBTU. For Q2 we increase our pricing estimates to $2.00mn of net income per Sales / Revenue (US$ 18,509 14,348 21,916 22,377