FY26 Apr-Jun Results Preview (Large-cap/Biotech)

Research evidence excerpt

FY26 Apr-Jun Results Preview (Large-cap/Biotech)

IdeaAlphaSignalsMEarnings Preview

Focus KPI Focus KPI Surprise Likely impact to consensus EPS*

Kyowa Kirin 4151.T

Core OP In-line Largely unchanged

• FY guidance was raised at 1Q reporting in May. Added upside seems unlikely at this time.

• Focus is on KHK4951 (AMD eyedrops) with Ph2 outcomes expected around Oct, so watch for method and

timing of announcement. Success would be a major surprise.

Takeda Pharmaceutical 4502.T

• We expect 1Q results about in line with the company plan.

• The debate is gradually shifting to new drugs rather than earnings results.

• Watch launch (NT1) and development (NT2) strategies for narcolepsy products.

• Confirming schedules for Zaso for psoriasis (PsO) and IBD (UC/CD) is important too.

• Look to confirm date of Capital Market Day with CEO Julie Kim and a sense of mid-term direction.

Astellas Pharma 4503.T

• Expect a good earnings run-rate in 1Q. After high levels in F3/27 1Q-3Q, expect greater challenges in F3/27 4Q

(IRA-related price pressure on Xtandi).

• We think the firm is very likely to maintain existing FY guidance.

Shionogi 4507.T

EBITDA Likely upside surprise Largely unchanged

• High profit levels in EBITDA and other lines prior to intangibles amortization. Big contributions from higher

Radicava and ViiV dividends. Also expect a slow start in terms of budget outlays.

• Watch HIV strategy, also GSK and Gilead IR disclosures.

Chugai Pharmaceutical 4519.T

Core OP & Foundayo sales (by Lilly) In-line Largely unchanged

• We think the market focus is on the startup of Foundayo (oral GLP-1), where we estimate $100-150mn (on the

basis of Lilly sales).

• Lilly’s 2Q results are due on Aug 5.

• Expect Chugai to follow a good 1Q with a steady 2Q, but likely maintain existing FY guidance.