Jul-Dec 2026 Catalysts for Large-cap Pharma/Bio

Research evidence excerpt

Jul-Dec 2026 Catalysts for Large-cap Pharma/Bio

IdeaCatalystMEvent Preview

Company / Catalyst Date Importance Surprise

Kyowa Kirin 4151.T

KHK4951 (AMD/DME) Ph2 results 4Q26 High Modest downside surprise

Takeaways:

• VEGF inhibitor eyedrop. As it is an eyedrop, our/market expectations are low. We think challenges of

drug delivery to the retina are not easy.

• If Ph2 is successful, it would be a positive surprise. Possibility of a global partnership would quickly

come into focus.

External drug in-licensing 4Q26 High In-line

• Acquisition of Ph1/2 new drug candidate at a reasonable price would likely have modest share-price

implications.

• Acquisition of high-risk asset through a major investment of $1–2bn or more could elicit negative near-

term market reaction.

• We see relatively high likelihood that one or two deals could be concluded within the next 6–9 months.

Takeda Pharmaceutical 4502.T

FDA approval of oveporexton (NT1);

2Q26 Very High Modest upside surprise

PDUFA: Aug 10

• FDA approval is generally expected, but because the market assigns a low valuation to Takeda’s new

drugs, approval itself would likely be a de-risking event.

• Launch could come 1–2 months after approval, following completion of the DEA review.

FDA approval of rusfertide; PDUFA: Aug

2Q26 High In-line

• FDA approval is generally expected, but it would still be positive as another new drug approval

following oveporexton.

• We expect launch trajectory to be relatively gradual. Peak sales estimated at $1–2bn.

TAK-360 (NT2) Ph2 results and start of

3Q26 High Modest upside surprise

Ph3

• We estimate timing in Jul–Dec.

• We expect Takeda to disclose TAK-360 Ph2 results and the Ph3 design at the 1Q or 2Q results briefing.

Zasocitinib for IBD (UC/CD) Ph2 results 1Q27 Very High Modest upside surprise