4QFY26 Prodn: In-line EBITDA for FY26; Aus Manganese impacts flagged for ‘27, cost guidances to follow.

Research evidence excerpt

4QFY26 Prodn: In-line EBITDA for FY26; Aus Manganese impacts flagged for ‘27, cost guidances to follow.

Update

July 19, 2026 11:57 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley Australia Limited+MSouth32 Ltd | Asia Pacific Rahul Anand, CFA

Equity Analyst

4QFY26 Prodn: In-line EBITDA R.Anand@morganstanley.comShannon J Sinha +61 2 9770-1136

Shannon.Sinha@morganstanley.com +61 2 9770-1334

for FY26; Aus Manganese Michael A Stancliff

Research Associate

Michael.Stancliff@morganstanley.com +61 2 9770-9253

impacts flagged for '27, cost

guidances to follow.

AlphaSignals Earnings Reaction

South32 Ltd (S32.AX, S32 AU)

Unchanged In-line Modest revision lower GDRS32J.J

Impact to our thesis Financial results versus consensus Direction of next 12-month Australia Materials | Australia

consensus EPS

Stock Rating Overweight

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research Industry View Attractive

Price target A$4.75

Shr price, close (Jul 17, 2026) A$3.90

Key Takeaways Mkt cap, curr (mn) US$12,266

FY26 EBITDA impact is negligible as lower prices offset higher volumes (vs. MSe) Fiscal Year Ending 06/25 06/26e 06/27e 06/28e

and higher costs at Australia Manganese offset better costs at Cannington. Revenue, net (US$ mn) 5,982 6,022 5,729 876

EBITDA (US$ mn) 1,447 1,588 1,809 798

FY27 Guide: Higher costs and lower production directionally flagged at Australia Net income (US$ mn)* 213 1,079 1,334 940

EPS (US$)** 0.15 0.21 0.25 0.18

Manganese, rest of FY27 costs guidance to follow at financials. Prior EPS (US$)** - - - -

EV/EBITDA 5.9 7.7 5.0 12.2

4Q26 vs. MSe/Cons, SG copper production 16.0kt, -3.6%/-5.9%, we expected FCF yld ratio (%) 19.7 (3.6) 16.2 (12.8)

Div yld (%) 3.4 2.4 3.7 3.2

volumes to be weak at the asset. Cannington Silver production 2,506kt, +24.3%/ Leverage (EOP) (%) (1.4) 1.5 (30.7) (21.3)

+22%.