Alsea (ALSEA.MX): Q2’26 First Take: Guidance downgrade

Research evidence excerpt

Alsea (ALSEA.MX): Q2’26 First Take: Guidance downgrade

Equity Research

20 July 2026 | 9:23PM BRT

Alsea’s consolidated EBITDA came in -6% below (a lowered) Bloomberg consensus, Thiago Bortoluci

+55(11)3372-0104 |

mostly on the back of a surprisingly negative same-store sales growth of -2% y/y in thiago.bortoluci@gs.com

Goldman Sachs do Brasil CTVM S.A.

its core Starbucks Mexico operation. On top of that, management lowered its

Nicolas Sussmann

FY2026 guidance, now reflecting consolidated same-store sales growth of just +55(11)3371-9880 |

low-single-digit and implying a flattish EBITDA margin, despite the tailwinds from nicolas.sussmann@gs.comGoldman Sachs do Brasil CTVM S.A.

the stronger MXN. Given the weak quarterly print and the lowered forward guidance,

we would expect Alsea shares to trade lower tomorrow and reiterate our Sell rating.

1. Guidance downgrade. With the consolidated same-store sales growth tracking

+3% y/y on the year-to-date average, management slashed its full-year guidance

to low-single-digit (down from mid-single-digit before). Sales and EBITDA

followed and are now both expected to grow low-single-digit. The change was

mostly attributed to Mexico macro and FX; we will look for further comments on

the conference call on why the ongoing appreciation of the MXN is not fully

flowing to the gross margin (at spot FX and all else equal, we would expect a

+55bp tailwind vs. the former guidance in Mexico). Total store openings (of 180

to 220), capex (of c. P$5.5B), and leverage (total debt/EBITDA of 2.6x to 2.8x)

were all maintained, but no direct comments on free-cash-flow generation were

made (at its March Capital Markets Day, it guided for a c. 5% yield in FY2026).

2. Broad miss. The group’s consolidated EBITDA (pre-IFRS) came -6% below