One 97 Communications (PAYT.BO): 1QFY27 Review: Strong quarter driving estimate upgrades; revisiting UPI MDR sensitivity; Buy

Research evidence excerpt

One 97 Communications (PAYT.BO): 1QFY27 Review: Strong quarter driving estimate upgrades; revisiting UPI MDR sensitivity; Buy

Goldman Sachs One 97 Communications (PAYT.BO)

postpaid product, further gains in market share, steady margin expansion and any

regulatory tailwinds such as MDR on UPI as potential catalysts for the stock (more

below). Additionally, we note that the next deadline for implementation of UPI market

share cap is Dec ‘26, and could have a material positive impact on Paytm in the event

this were to be implemented (Paytm is the third largest player in UPI at present).

We expect investor focus during Paytm’s earnings call (at 3.30 pm IST on 21 July) to be

on (i) drivers of payments market share gains and further headroom; (ii) trajectory of

postpaid scale up vs the previous iteration of the product; (iii) outlook for marketing

services segment, where revenue growth has been sluggish; and (iv) potential uses of

cash and Paytm’s international expansion plans.

Potential MDR on UPI: Press reports (link) in recent days have again suggested a

possibility of charges on UPI. Per our sensitivity analysis (first published here), every 5

bps of MDR (Merchant Discount Rates) on P2M (person-to-merchant) UPI above Rs2k

ticket size would be about 3% incremental revenues for Paytm in FY28E (all else equal),

though our FY28E-FY30E adjusted EBITDA estimates would be 12-17% higher since

there would be no incremental costs; (Exhibit 6).

1QFY27 results summary and forward outlook

n Paytm’s 1QFY27 revenue growth of 28% YoY was ahead of GSe at +24% YoY and

saw an acceleration from 18% reported growth (23% adjusted for UPI incentives) in

4QFY26. Excluding impact from PIDF incentives, Paytm’s revenue growth was at 31%

YoY in 1QFY27.