Risk Reward Update

Research evidence excerpt

Risk Reward Update

UpdateM

Risk Reward – Dominos Pizza Inc. (DPZ.O)

KEY EARNINGS INPUTS CATALYST CALENDAR

Drivers Dec 2025 Dec 2026e Dec 2027e Dec 2028e Date Event Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley

12 Oct 2026 -

Domestic SSS (%) 3.0 0.4 2.3 2.8 Q3 2026 Domino's Pizza Inc Earnings Release

16 Oct 2026

International SSS (%) 1.9 0.4 2.1 3.2

System sales growth (%) 5.2 6.6 3.7 6.3

System unit growth (%) 3.6 4.3 4.4 4.2

Adj EBITDA margin (%) 22.0 21.5 21.4 21.6

INVESTMENT DRIVERS RISKS TO PT/RATING MS ESTIMATES VS. CONSENSUS

Share gains in carryout pizza RISKS TO UPSIDE FY Dec 2027e

Stabilization in delivery pizza sales SSS growth returns to history as DPZ wins vs

Driving positive SSS through messaging, tech, competition, esp. in carryout. Sales / 5,259

marketing & new products 3P delivery yields $1B+ in incremental sales Revenue 5,233 5,586

Regular return of cash to shareholders US unit growth reaccelerates. ($, mm) 5,369

Global unit expansion

RISKS TO DOWNSIDE

QSR pizza delivery continues to cede share to 1,123

GLOBAL REVENUE EXPOSURE EBITDA

other categories 1,116 1,192

($, mm)

APAC, ex Japan, Mainland Unit growth falters, especially outside US 1,156 0-10% China and India Domestic fortressing cannibalizes sales visibly.

0-10% Europe ex UK International unable to reaccelerate unit

0-10% India growth EBIT 1,033

0-10% Japan 1,026 1,088 ($, mm)

0-10% Latin America 1,055

OWNERSHIP POSITIONING 0-10% MEA

0-10% Mainland China Inst. Owners, % Active 56.8% 20.38

0-10% UK EPS

90-100% North America HF Sector Long/Short Ratio 1.7x ($) 19.66 21.65

20.84

Source: Morgan Stanley Research Estimate HF Sector Net Exposure 11.1%

View explanation of regional hierarchies here Refinitiv; MSPB Content. Includes certain hedge fund Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates

exposures held with MSPB.