High Quality Results Ahead; Downstream EBITDA & FCF Strength on the Spotlight

Research evidence excerpt

High Quality Results Ahead; Downstream EBITDA & FCF Strength on the Spotlight

Idea

July 21, 2026 01:33 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley C.T.V.M. S.A.+MYPF SA | Latin America Bruno Montanari

Equity Analyst

High Quality Results Ahead; Bruno.Montanari@morganstanley.comThiago S Casqueiro +55 11 3048-6225

Research Associate

Thiago.Casqueiro@morganstanley.com +55 11 3048-9507

Downstream EBITDA & FCF Luiza B Belem

Luiza.Belem@morganstanley.com +55 11 3048-4276

Strength on the Spotlight

YPF SA (YPF.N, YPF UN)

What’s Changed LatAm Integrated Oil & Gas | Argentina

YPF SA (YPF.N) From To Stock Rating Overweight

Price Target US$59.00 US$60.00 Industry View No Rating

Price target US$60.00

Shr price, close (Jul 20, 2026) US$50.44

We forecast the continuance of a positive momentum for YPF in Mkt cap, curr (mm) US$19,839

52-Week Range US$57.47-22.84

the 2Q26, as high crack spreads should drive strong refining Fiscal Year Ending 12/25 12/26e 12/27e 12/28e

margins. Combined with robust E&P results, FCF should reach a EPS (US$)** (2.10) 6.16 6.68 7.54

historical record, providing support to the stock. We stay OW EPS (US$)§ 0.49 6.78 6.03 8.16 P/E NM 8.1 7.6 6.7

and increase our PT to $60/ADR (from $59/ADR). P/BV 1.3 1.5 1.2 1.1

EV/EBITDA 4.9 3.7 4.1 3.7

ROE (%) (4.8) 22.7 19.5 18.6

We update our model ahead of 2Q26 report to incorporate: i) realized oil, gas, and Div yld (%) 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.5

fuel prices in 2Q26; ii) updated macroeconomic estimates; iii) O&G production data Dly prod, total company 527 530 562 613

(BOE) (000s)

through May. As a result, our EBITDA estimate increases by 4.5% in 2Q26 and 3.8% Revenue, net (US$ mm) 18,448 22,575 21,654 22,760

in 2026E. EBITDA (US$ mm) 5,350 8,154 7,268 7,974

Net income (US$ mm)* (826) 2,421 2,626 2,967

Capex (US$ mm) 5,077 5,959 5,557 5,606