Americas Metals & Mining: Deal or no deal?

Research evidence excerpt

Americas Metals & Mining: Deal or no deal?

19 July 2026

Americas Metals & Mining EquitiesMetals & Mining

Deal or no deal? Americas

◆ Metal prices have eased from May’s highs, but remain elevated

Jonathan Brandt, CFA

Analyst, GEMs ex-Asia Metals & Mining, Pulp & Paper

◆ The ME conflict and its impact on trade routes, higher interest HSBC Securities (USA) Inc.

rates, supply disruptions, and cost inflation are key risks jon.brandt@us.hsbc.com

+1 212 525 4499

◆ Maintain Buy ratings on VALE, BRAP, FCX, AA, TX, and GGBR; Ishan Jain*

revise target prices Analyst,HSBC SecuritiesMetals &andMining,CapitalPulpMarkets& Paper(India) Private

Limited

ishanjain@hsbc.co.in

Commodities – resilient demand and supply-led: The immediate impact of the US- +91 80 4550 3767

Iran Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) fed through to prices where supply risks were

Gustavo Hwang*, CFA

most direct. Aluminium corrected on expectations of improved supply from the Middle Analyst, GEMs ex-Asia Metals & Mining, Pulp & Paper

East, while concerns about copper and nickel supply linked to Sulphur shortages have Banco HSBC S.A.

gustavo.hwang@hsbc.com

also diminished. While the MoU and the partial reopening the Strait of Hormuz have +55 11 2802 3257

reduced near-term market stress, significant uncertainties remain. Recent events highlight

the risk of a breakdown in the interim agreement. The speed of normalization and the * Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and is

extent of any lasting disruption from the conflict will be key in shaping metal price not registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations

performance over the near to medium term. Over the long term, the drive to diversify

supply chains, build critical mineral inventories, and reduce dependence on oil are likely to