Metals Quarterly Q3 2026: Shaky ‘MoUmentum‘

Research evidence excerpt

Metals Quarterly Q3 2026: Shaky ‘MoUmentum‘

Equities ● North America

19 July 2026

Striking a balance between normalization pace,

policy paths, and weather risks

◆ US–Iran MoU and the potential Strait of Hormuz reopening reduces immediate supply disruption fears; however,

uncertainty remains as the conflict appears to re-ignite

◆ With resilient demand, supply growth will dictate commodity price movements; higher interest rates, weather-related

supply disruptions, and higher-than-expected cost inflation are key risks

◆ Aluminium, copper, platinum and rhodium are our preferred metals

The immediate impact of the US–Iran Economic crosscurrents A mixed picture for monetary policy

Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) fed through While the pace of the Strait’s reopening, or Since the June FOMC meeting—the first under

to prices where supply risks were most direct. potentially if it is closed again, is likely to be the new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh—it has been clear

Aluminium corrected on expectations of improved most important driver for the global outlook in policymakers are actively debating the potential

supply from the Middle East, while concerns about 2026–27, other forces may pull in different need for rate hikes. While Warsh did not submit a

copper and nickel supply linked to sulphur directions with uneven effects, including an AI-led projection for policy rates, nine of 18 participants

shortages have also diminished. While the MoU uplift in exports and investment, El Niño-related expected the policy rate to be higher by year-end,

and the partial reopening the Strait of Hormuz risks to agricultural output and food prices, and the while the remainder expected it to be unchanged

have reduced near-term market stress, significant stance of fiscal policy.