TotalEnergies (TTE FP): Hold: 2Q26 preview – mixed results in another disrupted quarter

Research evidence excerpt

TotalEnergies (TTE FP): Hold: 2Q26 preview – mixed results in another disrupted quarter

3.7 4.7 4.7

ROE (%) 13.4 18.7 12.9 12.1

working capital release and strong cash flows from a supportive macro environment.

52-WEEK PRICE (EUR)

Estimates: We reduce our 2Q earnings forecast to USD6.1bn, 10% (USD0.7bn)

below our previous estimate, with negative revisions in E&P and Integrated LNG only 85.00

partly offset by an upgrade to Refining & Chemicals. Our gearing of c13% at end-2Q 65.00

is in line with company guidance.

45.00

07/25 01/26 07/26

Areas of focus for the call include: (1) Distributions: With 1Q results, Total guided

Target price: 79.00 High: 81.02 Low: 49.85 Current: 70.51

to a 2Q buyback of USD1.5bn, the top end of its USD0.75-1.5bn quarterly range for

Source: LSEG IBES, HSBC estimates

2026 at USD60-70/b. We reduce our assumption on 2H26 buybacks back to USD1.5bn

per quarter (versus USD1.75bn previously) on our lowered Brent deck (USD72.5/b in

Kim Fustier*

2H26 versus USD94/b previously), which implies a c40% payout ratio. Total might Senior Global Oil & Gas Analyst

defer guidance on distributions until its September investor day. (2) Middle East: HSBC Bank plc kim.fustier@hsbc.com

Total’s exposure to the Middle East (>25% of volumes) makes it hard to ignore the +44 20 3359 2136

issue, notably as the situation is deteriorating again after a short-lived improvement. Sadnan Ali*, CFA

We do not expect Total to change its stance of a continued commitment to the region. Global Oil & Gas Analyst HSBC Bank plc

In the shorter term, Total’s ability to capture the environment across E&P, LNG and sadnan.ali@hsbc.com

downstream will be scrutinised. +44 207 9910569

Ujjwal Sharma*

Maintain Hold; cut target price: We cut our 2026 net income forecast by 5% to reflect Associate