Aspen Pharmacare Holdings (APN SJ): Buy: One door closes, but another one opens

Research evidence excerpt

Aspen Pharmacare Holdings (APN SJ): Buy: One door closes, but another one opens

we think this will be driven, in part, by new oral

versions without food restrictions (such as Orforglipron). These new versions will be patent

protected. Until then, market penetration of generic orals may be lower.

Overall, without the materialisation of downside risks discussed, we see a cZAR330m-850m

revenue opportunity between FY27-FY30 for Aspen. Although the revenue opportunity in

Canada alone is not significant, we think that completing the rigorous regulatory process in

Canada may pave the way for faster approvals in emerging markets and open the door for

volume growth.

Potential for demand from the US

Purchasing of Canadian drugs by Americans

According to CBC news articles from May 2019 and March 2023, Americans are permitted to

buy pharmaceuticals from Canada which comply with the FD&C Act, provided they possess a

prescription from a physician licensed in Canada. Additionally, physicians practising in border

regions such as Quebec, Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, and Maine can obtain a Canadian

licence through the College of Physicians and Surgeons of New Brunswick, with annual

renewal. American patients have the option to visit walk-in clinics in Canada and pay directly for

consultations or have their prescriptions filled and dispatched by a Canadian pharmacist, with a

restriction of a 90-day supply.

Patients in the US have already turned to Canada for the purchase of Ozempic given the lower

price point. According to the former Minister of Health of British Colombia, Adrian Dix, the

results of an internal ministry investigation into the cross-border issue in 2023 indicated

that nearly one in five (20%) Ozempic prescriptions in British Columbia were issued to American