UAE Real Estate: A market reset – but not all bad news

Research evidence excerpt

UAE Real Estate: A market reset – but not all bad news

20 July 2026

UAE Real Estate EquitiesReal Estate

A market reset – but not all bad news United Arab Emirates

◆ September is by consensus the litmus test month Stephen Bramley-Jackson*

Global Head of Real Estate Research

◆ A relatively shallow reset could be a positive milestone HSBC Bank Middle East Limited, Dubai branch

stephen.bramley-jackson@hsbc.com

◆ Retain Buy ratings on recurring income names; downgrade +971 4 423 6903

Emaar Development to Hold (from Buy); review TPs AlokAssociateBaid*

Bangalore

For investors retaining exposure, we advocate investing in recurring income

A lasting cessation of hostilities in the Middle East would without doubt be a positive * Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and is

development, although viewpoints regarding when that might be, and then the rate of not registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations

return to a pre-conflict status quo remain a topic of debate. In addition, the onset of

the summer is making data points more difficult to read due to the absence of tourists

and the growing number of expats heading off to cooler climes (both being the

seasonal norm) which is creating a reduction in retail footfall, F&B patronage, and

depressed hotel RevPAR. Surrounding this is the question of how many will return,

although feedback from client calls suggests that to date few have permanently left.

Consequently, September, being the start of the new academic school year is

generally viewed as the litmus test month for whether life returns to a pre-conflict

norm within the UAE and economic momentum is restored.

However, irrespective of the deliberations, the real estate sector has already entered

a downturn, with both prices and rents weakening.