China Banks: Loan share shift: state-owned banks on the front foot

Research evidence excerpt

China Banks: Loan share shift: state-owned banks on the front foot

20 July 2026

China Banks EquitiesCommercial Banks

Loan share shift: state-owned banks on the front foot China

◆ Big 4 banks are taking loan market share; their stronger loan Gary Lam*, CFA

pipelines should support more resilient NIM Head of Greater China Financials Research

The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited

gary.lam@hsbc.com.hk

◆ Longer term, insurers and brokers may outgrow banks on +852 2996 6926

asset growth; banks would focus on quality over quantity Yiwei Liu*

Associate, China Banks

◆ Prefer CCB-H, BOC-H, and ICBC-H, all rated Buy yi.wei.liu@hsbc.com.hk

+852 2996 6635

China’s sector loan growth has decelerated from 12.4% CAGR (2015–20) to 9.1% Simon Ling* Associate

(2020–25). The June 2026 statistics indicated sector loan growth easing to 5.1% Guangzhou

y‑o‑y, down from 6.8% y-o-y in June 2025, reflecting weaker loan demand from retail

(both consumption-related lending and mortgages) and fixed-asset investment (China * Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and is

not registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations

credit, 15 July). With slower loan growth, investors are increasingly focused on how

loan market shares are shifting across banks – who’s gaining ground and who’s

falling behind. We look at this from both a near-term and a long-term angle.

Near-term: Big 4 banks gaining more shares while joint-stock banks losing. The

Big 4 banks delivered faster RMB loan growth at 5.5% h-o-h, vs 3.4% h-o-h for mid &

small-sized banks and 3.9% h-o-h for the sector. We expect state-owned banks to

continue gaining market share, supported by their closer connections to SOEs and

fiscal-backed projects (China’s Urbanisation 2.0, 29 May). Since 2021, state-owned