Americas Retail: Takeaways from IR/management; BBWI channel check

Research evidence excerpt

Americas Retail: Takeaways from IR/management; BBWI channel check

Goldman Sachs Americas Retail

shopping at BJ’s, including adding big ticket items to the basket.

Looking to the remainder of the year, we continue to see earnings upside driven by a

better top-line outlook based on continued strong traffic trends, unit volume growth in

grocery categories, and greater customer engagement likely in general merchandise

categories as a result of the company’s assortment refresh. Additionally, we believe that

the club model is one of the most compelling in retail given its strong value proposition

when consumers are still dealing with inflationary headwinds, as well as in the current

tariff environment. BJ’s is guiding to FY26 SSS (ex gas) of +2.0-3.0% and FY26 adj. EPS of

$4.40-4.60. In terms of cadence, 1Q was facing the toughest compare (+3.9% in 1Q25),

and management expects 2Q to 4Q comps to be within the full year range. We note BJ’s

long runway for new club growth, including 25-30 clubs every two years, which should

continue to support market share gains in the future. We currently estimate 2Q SSS (ex

gas) of +2.5%, in-line with consensus (LSEG Data & Analytics), and 2Q adj. EPS of $1.16,

also in-line with consensus. For the year, we estimate FY26 SSS (ex gas) of +2.6%, slightly

above consensus at +2.5%, and adj. EPS of $4.60, above consensus at $4.52.

DG

Pricing and promotional environment. Management noted that their pricing strategy

remains unchanged, with a continued focus on maintaining price gaps within ~3-4 points

for important SKUs. While management is aware of the pricing headlines in the industry,

they have not seen anything atypical in the competitive environment. On the vendor

side, management called out that they remain one of the top partners for most CPG