Residential REITs 2Q26 Earnings Preview

Research evidence excerpt

Residential REITs 2Q26 Earnings Preview

Equity Research

20 July 2026 | 6:12AM PDT

AMERICAS REAL ESTATE: REITS

In this note, we take a deep dive into real-time residential REIT trends heading into Julien Blouin

+1(415)393-7638 |

2H26. Sunbelt demand is improving, with absorption near record levels and finally julien.blouin@gs.com

Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

outpacing deliveries in 2Q26; however, the rent growth recovery remains gradual (as

Ryan Treaisopposed to REITs’ expectations of a sharper recovery). By contrast, West Coast +1(415)249-7061 | ryan.treais@gs.com

fundamentals are improving across several realtime indicators: San Francisco/San Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

Shikhar GuptaJose and Seattle are seeing better migration trends, improving vacancy, stronger rent +1(332)245-7974 |

growth, and the lowest supply outlook across apartment REIT markets. Our deep shikhar.y.gupta@gs.comGoldman Sachs India SPL

dive into AI job postings trends shows that San Francisco, San Jose and Seattle are all

seeing significant growth in AI job postings, which we believe is driving accelerating

rent growth beyond just San Francisco, broadening across Northern California

(including San Jose) and in parts of Seattle as well (Bellevue), as uncovered in our

granular realtime submarket analysis. As a result, we see meaningful upside to

consensus 2Q26 blends estimates for ESS (as well as their full year blends). In

contrast, we still see meaningful downside to CPT and MAA full year blends

estimates. In SFR, BTR and shadow supply (for-sale converting to for-rent)

headwinds are easing evidenced in single family rental listings finally declining YoY

(particularly in Phoenix and Florida, where INVH has outsized exposures). In turn,