Jarir Marketing Co (JARIR AB): Downgrade to Hold: Can growth re-accelerate?

Research evidence excerpt

Jarir Marketing Co (JARIR AB): Downgrade to Hold: Can growth re-accelerate?

2.5 60.3 60.3

that sales fell 8.7% q-o-q in 2Q26 after record smartphone sales in the prior quarter, a useful

52-WEEK PRICE (SAR)

reminder that smartphones can be a tailwind and a volatility amplifier. Investors should

watch for whether pricing holds as supply normalises, and whether demand remains 19.00

resilient into the expected seasonal lift ahead of the next iPhone launch. The direction of 15.00

travel is still constructive, but an easy re-rating looks unlikely as the memory shortage is set

11.00

to keep margins under pressure, and price increases may weaken demand dynamics. 07/25 01/26 07/26

Target price: 18.00 High: 18.10 Low: 12.39 Current: 17.92

New ventures won’t move near-term forecasts but could shape the longer-term

story. The marketplace offers a low-capex way to broaden assortment and defend digital Source: LSEG IBES, HSBC estimates

traffic; management is targeting new categories (c2,500 SKUs) with SAR500m long-term

Raj Sinha*

sales potential (just over 4% of 2025 revenue). Consumer finance (Rifd) could lift Co-Head of Global Equity Research

affordability as instalment penetration has risen to 38% in 4Q25, though competition and HSBC Bank Middle East Limited, Dubai branch

raj.sinha@hsbc.com

regulation keep execution key. On stores, rising online mix argues for optimisation, which +971 4 423 6932

may be smaller formats and fulfilment-led locations. Saikat Majumder*

Analyst, Emerging EMEA Healthcare & Saudi

Bull and bear case have +/-10ppt net profit growth to 2028e vs base. We increase our Consumer

2026 net profit forecast by 4.5% but cut sales by 1%, which implies c7% y-o-y growth in HSBC Securities and Capital Markets (India) Private

Limited

sales and net profit in 2H26.