Wintrust Financial Corporation (WTFC.O): 2Q26 Initial Take - Fees Drive PPNR, Limited LLP Supports EPS Upside

Research evidence excerpt

Wintrust Financial Corporation (WTFC.O): 2Q26 Initial Take - Fees Drive PPNR, Limited LLP Supports EPS Upside

Wintrust Financial Corporation (WTFC.O)

20 July 2026 Citi Research

Wintrust Financial Corporation

Valuation

Our $182 target price for WTFC is derived from our discounted residual income model, which values an enterprise based on its

discounted excess returns over its cost of equity. Our residual income model incorporates our 3-year forward earnings

projection followed by a 7-year fade period to our normalized ROTE estimate of 14.5%. The key inputs to our 10.3% cost of

equity are a risk-free rate of 4.5%, ERP of 3.5%, and a beta of 1.65. We assume a 5.0% long-term growth rate.

Risks

Key macroeconomic risk to WTFC is the Fed is unable to achieve a “soft landing”, which could lead to increased credit risk.

While we do not expect significant losses, if credit conditions deteriorate beyond our expectations, it may impose significant

headwinds to earnings and achieving our target price.

Company-Specific Positive Risks: WTFC has a history of successful bolt-on acquisitions. If WTFC is able to deploy excess

capital in a well-priced acquisition, we would expect enhancements to the bank’s earnings power and stock price.

Company-Specific Negative Risks: WTFC has a unique concentration in Chicago and niche lines of lending, namely premium

finance. While we believe management has taken steps to decrease CRE concentration in Chicago and has exercised its

“moderate-to-low risk appetite,” should the credit environment worsen beyond our expectations we believe loan geographic

concentrations may pose risk to our estimates.

If the impact on the company from any of these factors proves to be greater/less than we anticipate, it could prevent the stock