Gold and Silver: When Will ETF Buying Resume?

Research evidence excerpt

Gold and Silver: When Will ETF Buying Resume?

Idea

July 20, 2026 07:42 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+Mmetal&ROCK | Europe Amy Gower (Amy Sergeant), CFA

Commodities Strategist

Gold and Silver: When Will ETF Amy.Gower1@morganstanley.comBen Kelson +44 20 7677-6937

Research Associate

Ben.Kelson@morganstanley.com +44 20 7677-1392

Buying Resume? Martijn Rats, CFA

Equity Analyst and Commodities Strategist

Martijn.Rats@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-6618

Gold is struggling for direction, with central bank gold buying

improving but ETFs selling on Fed hike fears. Silver has seen Exhibit 1 : China has accelerated its gold

similar ETF selling but has lagged gold, with softer industrial purchases

1500demand. From here, we see upside to both, contingent on the 35 MonthlyChinaAdditionsCentral(tonnes)Bank Monthly Gold GoldPurchasesPrice ($/oz)(tonnes)RH axis Inverted)

Fed avoiding a rate hike. 30

Key Takeaways 15 3500

ETFs were 20% of gold demand and 15% of silver demand in 2025, but have been 10 4500

selling precious metals since the Middle East conflict on rate hike fears. 5 5000

0 5500

Feb-22 Aug-22 Feb-23 Aug-23 Feb-24 Aug-24 Feb-25 Aug-25 Feb-26

Gold central bank buying is accelerating, led by China and Poland.

Source: Bloomberg

In contrast, silver industrial and jewellery demand have been pressured by high

and volatile prices in 2025. Exhibit 2 : But ETFs remain absent for now

We see room for both metals to rebound from here if the Fed can avoid rate 1050 Total Known ETF Holdings (Moz) 115

110 hikes, in line with our US economists' view that disinflation has begun. 1000 Silver ETF Gold ETF (RH Axis)

We forecast $4,450/oz for gold, $65.40/oz for silver by Q4 2026. 900

850 100

800 95