A Systematic FX Strategy

Research evidence excerpt

A Systematic FX Strategy

Global Idea

July 20, 2026 05:43 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+MGlobal EM Strategist James K Lord

Strategist

A Systematic FX Strategy James.Lord@morganstanley.comMorgan Stanley & Co. LLC +44 20 7677-3254

Simon Waever

Systematic strategies can add value to a discretionary process by StrategistSimon.Waever@morganstanley.com +1 212 296-8101

stress-testing views and building conviction. We take a break

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+

from our typical FX/EM commentary to highlight a systematic Stephan M Kessler

strategy from our QIS team. QuantitativeStephan.Kessler@morganstanley.comAnalyst +44 20 7425-2854

Mingyong Liu

Quantitative AnalystKey Takeaways

Mingyong.Liu@morganstanley.com +44 20 7677-0963

The Morgan Stanley QIS team recently highlighted the attractive returns from FX

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC

systematic investing strategies throughout different market conditions and Ioana Zamfir

regimes. Strategist

Ioana.Zamfir@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-4012

We don't generally use systematic strategies to drive our views, but there is no Emma C Cerda

reason why we cannot use them as an input to stress-test our views. Strategist

Emma.Cerda@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-2344

The QIS team's strategy is modestly long USD. We are neutral with a bearish bias Sofia Palacios

in part due to the house call on the Fed, which is more dovish than market Strategist

Sofia.Palacios@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-0428

pricing.

Neville Z Mandimika

Must reads from Global EM Strategy Neville.Mandimika@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-2509

South Africa Economics & Strategy: SARB Preview: A Divided Hike & Arnav Gupta

Steeper Curve | 20-Jul-2026 Arnav.Gupta@morganstanley.com +44 20 7677-0382

We expect the MPC to deliver a 25bp policy rate hike this week.