1H26 Preview: Solid Performance Across Key Metrics

Research evidence excerpt

1H26 Preview: Solid Performance Across Key Metrics

Idea

July 20, 2026 02:09 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+MFWD Group Holdings Ltd | Asia Pacific Richard Xu, CFA

Equity Analyst

1H26 Preview: Solid Richard.Xu@morganstanley.comRick Zhao +852 2848-6729

Rick.Zhao@morganstanley.com +852 2239-7033

Performance Across Key Metrics Chenqian Liu

Research Associate

What’s Changed Chenqian.Liu@morganstanley.com +852 3963-0359

FWD Group Holdings Ltd (1828.HK) From To

Price Target HK$42.50 HK$40.10

We expect FWD to deliver 9% VNB growth (CER) and a 18% NB

CSM increase in 1H26, driven primarily by EM and Japan. HK FWD Group Holdings Ltd (1828.HK, 1828 HK)

should also post decent growth amid a high base. Overall, we Hong Kong/China Insurance | Hong Kong

expect continued positive momentum across the company's key Stock Rating Overweight

Industry View Attractive

financial metrics in 1H26. Price target HK$40.10

Up/downside to price target (%) 36

FWD could report 1H26 results in late August. We expect VNB to rise 9% (CER), Shr price, close (Jul 20, 2026) HK$29.38

52-Week Range HK$50.80-26.80

driven by 11% APE growth while VNB margin remains largely flattish. Segmentally: Sh out, dil, curr (mn) 1,178

Mkt cap, curr (mn) HK$34,616

– HK may post 9% VNB growth, with some modest acceleration in 2Q vs. 1Q as the EV, curr (mn) HK$(42,347)

Avg daily trading value (mn) HK$17

base effect rolls through.

Fiscal Year Ending 12/25 12/26e 12/27e 12/28e

– Thai could still see a 4% VNB decline. However, FWD Thai is showing signs of EPS (HK$)** 0.69 1.59 2.15 2.78

recovery: APE grew 1% in April and May vs. -6% in 1Q, and a favorable product mix Prior EPS (HK$)** - 1.85 2.41 2.99

EPS (HK$)§ 0.65 1.65 2.14 2.51

could partly offset the lag impact from low interest rates.