Travelers Cos. (TRV): First Take: EPS Beats on CATs/PYD and Core Loss Ratio as Pricing Weakens

Research evidence excerpt

Travelers Cos. (TRV): First Take: EPS Beats on CATs/PYD and Core Loss Ratio as Pricing Weakens

Goldman Sachs Travelers Cos. (TRV)

Renewal Premium change decelerated by 90bps QoQ to 4.8% as renewal rate

decelerated by 120bps QoQ to 1.9%, while exposure increased by 30bps to 2.9%. Both

RPC and renewal rate were more resilient in Select/Middle Market than the overall as

RPC was +120bps/-50bps sequentially and renewal rate was +30bps/-60bps.

Bond & Specialty reported pretax segment earnings of $295mn, which was modestly

above GSe/VA Consensus of $273mn/$269mn.

The underlying combined ratio of 89.6% missed VA Consensus/GSe by 1.8pp/1.3pp,

(87.6%/88.1% VA Consensus/GSe), with the miss vs. the Street driven by the underlying

loss ratio (130bps miss) and to a lesser extent the expense ratio. The company called out

a large loss event in international management liability business that contributed to

the core loss ratio miss.

Net favorable PYD beat the street by nearly 4pp, driven by better than expected loss

experience in the general liability product line for management liability coverage for

multiple accident years and in the fidelity and surety product line for recent accident

years.

NPW growth of 14% (16% (ex- Canada)) was materially stronger than GSe/VA Consensus

expectations for ~3% as Surety growth accelerated to 40% (vs 14% in 1Q26) reflecting

success with large products, while management Liability grew by 4%.

Personal Insurance reported pretax segment operating income of $1,040mn, better

than our estimate/VA Consensus of $299mn /$283mn.

The underlying combined ratio of 77.3% improved 200bps YoY and beat VA

Consensus/GSe by 2.5pp/1.8pp. Versus our estimates, the beat was primarily driven by

the Auto business (440bps stronger than GSe), which posted an improved CR