USA: Import Prices Above Expectations; Estimating 0.18% for June Core PCE; Housing Starts Rebound Sharply; Industrial Production Slightly

Research evidence excerpt

USA: Import Prices Above Expectations; Estimating 0.18% for June Core PCE; Housing Starts Rebound Sharply; Industrial Production Slightly

Economics Research

17 July 2026 | 9:56AM EDT

USA: Import Prices Above Expectations; Estimating 0.18% for June Core

PCE; Housing Starts Rebound Sharply; Industrial Production Slightly

BOTTOM LINE: Core import prices rose 0.5% in June, slightly above consensus Jan Hatzius

+1(212)902-0394 | jan.hatzius@gs.com

expectations. The international airfares component of import prices, which is the Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

source data for the foreign travel component of core PCE, increased 3.4% (SA by GS). David Mericle

We estimate that the core PCE price index rose 0.18% in June (vs. our expectation of +1(212)357-2619david.mericle@gs.com|

0.17% prior to today’s import prices report), corresponding to a year-over-year rate Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

Alec Phillipsof +3.32%. Housing starts rebounded 19.0% in June, above expectations, after +1(202)637-3746 | alec.phillips@gs.com

falling 15.2% in the prior month on the back of an outsized decline in multifamily Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

Walkerstarts. Single-family housing starts—the component relevant for GDP tracking— Ronnie | +1(917)343-4543

edged down 0.2%. Industrial production increased by slightly less than expected in ronnie.walker@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

June. The details of the industrial production report suggest slightly stronger

Manuel Abecasis

consumption and equipment investment than we previously assumed. We boosted +1(212)902-8357 |

manuel.abecasis@gs.com

our Q2 GDP tracking estimate by 0.1pp to +2.5% (quarter-over-quarter annualized). Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

Elsie Peng

US MAP: +1(212)357-3137 | elsie.peng@gs.com

Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

Housing starts +3 (1, +3) Pierfrancesco Mei