European July Flash PMI Preview

Research evidence excerpt

European July Flash PMI Preview

Goldman Sachs

The rise in energy prices since early July, however, may prevent further relief on the PMI

price components in next week’s print. Furthermore, firms in the aeronautics, computer,

and electronics sectors flagged rising supply difficulties related to the sourcing of

electronic components.

Germany

In Germany, the final reading of the June PMIs showed a historically large 1.5pt upward

revision to the composite index to 49.5 (vs. 48.8 in May), which generally offset the

downside surprise observed in the flash print. Composite upward revisions of this kind

are historically associated with further upside in the following month (Exhibit 3, left).

Non-PMI surveys have been more mixed. The ifo survey confirmed the PMI signal of an

improvement in services activity, but the assessment of current conditions in the

manufacturing sector was essentially flat. The ifo index of monthly production softened

further in June and truck toll mileage also contracted, suggesting that PMIs might have

overstated momentum in the sector last month (Exhibit 3, right).

Exhibit 3: Large Upward Revision to June PMIs, ifo More Mixed

Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence, Haver Analytics, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

High-frequency data for July has been mixed (Exhibit 4).

On the positive side, the German Retail Federation consumer survey showed an uptick in

perceived economic conditions in early July, airline activity ticked up, and dinner

bookings continue to show strong year-over-year growth.

On the negative side, truck toll mileage remained quite soft in early July, job postings

continued to declined into July after some stabilization in Q2, and the Bundesbank’s

Weekly Activity Index remains in deeply contractionary territory.