GLOBAL FX TRADER Cool, Calm and Collected

Research evidence excerpt

GLOBAL FX TRADER Cool, Calm and Collected

Economics Research

17 July 2026 | 8:44PM BST

GLOBAL FX TRADER

Cool, Calm and Collected

Our thoughts on USD, GBP, KRW, HUF, CHF, CAD, THB, AUD/NZD, & Kamakshya Trivedi +44(20)7051-4005 |

Frontier FX kamakshya.trivedi@gs.comGoldman Sachs International

n USD: Cool, calm, and collecting carry. The cooler US inflation print crimped a Michael Cahill

tail that could have allowed for bigger policy divergence and outsized spot FX +44(20)7552-8314michael.e.cahill@gs.com|

moves. Instead, carry considerations have once again had the largest Goldman Sachs International

Danny Suwanapruti contribution to returns and investor preferences, even within the G10 (Exhibit 1). +65-6889-1987 |

This makes sense in a market defined by low vol and high dispersion in the level danny.suwanapruti@gs.comGoldman Sachs (Singapore) Pte

of rates, and we expect it to continue, but it is all the more remarkable when Teresa Alves

concerns have risen in commodities and equities. We have argued that the source +44(20)7051-7566teresa.alves@gs.com|

Goldman Sachs International

of market volatility is increasingly moving from macro drivers to the more micro

Karen Reichgott Fishman

level and so far this is proving correct. If those factors morph into more macro +1(212)855-6006 |

karen.fishman@gs.com

drivers it would interrupt the carry-friendly environment in FX, but we see a high Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

bar for that to happen given that even volatility within the most-affected asset Stuart Jenkins

+44(20)7051-4700 |

classes is still low beyond the sector level, regional divergence has been more stuart.jenkins@gs.com

limited than in previous tech turmoil, and the level of rate dispersion provides a

Victor Engel

wide buffer for currencies.