GLOBAL RATES TRADER Quick Duration Break

Research evidence excerpt

GLOBAL RATES TRADER Quick Duration Break

Economics Research

17 July 2026 | 7:45PM BST

GLOBAL RATES TRADER

Quick Duration Break

June’s cooler inflation data has brought some reprieve to hawkish risks in the US. George Cole

+44(20)7552-1214 |

With Fed officials signaling a clear focus on the price side of the mandate, however, george.cole@gs.com

Goldman Sachs International

continued erosion in hike pricing requires further accumulation of quieting inflation

William Marshallnews under a stable labor market baseline. Meanwhile, the relative stickiness in +1(212)357-0413 |

long-end yields makes sense given reduced cyclical risks and ongoing AI investment, william.c.marshall@gs.comGoldman Sachs & Co. LLC

so the mix of risks facing the US curve continues to argue for anchoring longs in 5s. Simon Freycenet

Hawkish risks are now well-priced by both European and UK front-ends, although +44(20)7774-5017simon.freycenet@gs.com|

upside risks to gas prices may prevent relief in the near term. Nonetheless, we expect GoldmanBranch Sachs Bank Europe SE - Paris

to see front-end relief and steeper curves to end-2026. Redirecting Japanese savings Isabella Rosenberg

towards domestic assets and JGBs via GPIF and NISA may see pension and retail +1(212)357-7628 | isabella.rosenberg@gs.com

categories increasing JGB allocation, but apart from modest support to long-end Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

spreads we think macro conditions will determine JGB yields, not flows. Friedrich Schaper

+1(917)343-3214 |

friedrich.schaper@gs.com

Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

United States and Canada Loic Mathys

+44(20)7051-1664 |

n Inflation grants a reprieve. A stable labor market has kept Fed officials firmly loic.mathys@gs.com

focused on the inflation side of the mandate, with recent communication