JSW Steel (JSTL.BO): Q1FY27 Results Review: Surpasses estimates; upcoming volume pick-up and lower leverage are the key positives;

Research evidence excerpt

JSW Steel (JSTL.BO): Q1FY27 Results Review: Surpasses estimates; upcoming volume pick-up and lower leverage are the key positives;

Equity Research

18 July 2026 | 8:30PM IST

JSW Steel (JSTL.BO): Q1FY27 Results Review: Surpasses estimates;

upcoming volume pick-up and lower leverage are the key positives;

Our view on the stock post Q1FY27 results Amit Dixit

+91(22)6616-9008 | amit.dixit@gs.com

We remain positive on the JSW Steel (JSTL) stock mainly due to the focus on volume Goldman Sachs India SPL

growth. India sales volume rose 5.5% YoY to 6.3mt in Q1FY27 despite BF-3 (3mtpa) Kumari Rishika

furnace not being operational and headwinds in retail segment. Even in the +91(22)6616-9154rishika.x.singh@gs.com|

seasonally weak Q2, management has guided for higher volume as BF-3 furnace was Goldman Sachs India SPL

commissioned and likely to ramp up. On leverage front, net debt is down by INR 77bn

QoQ as BPSL divestiture is now complete, resulting in net debt/EBITDA of 1.46x

against management’s guidance of 2.5x threshold across the cycle. Both capacity

expansion and downstream capex is on track, resulting in higher volume and margins

respectively. While we estimate Q2FY27 domestic spread to be softer by INR

2,500-2,800/t QoQ, we expect volume growth in H2FY27 to compensate for the

same. Taking cognizance of better than expected earnings, we raise our

FY27E/FY28E EBITDA by 3%/1%. However, factoring in lower debt post the

completion of BPSL divestiture, we raise our TP to INR 1,525 (earlier INR 1,500) on an

unchanged 9x FY28E EBITDA. We are Buy rated on JSTL stock.

Key highlights of Q1FY27 performance

JSTL’s consolidated EBITDA of INR 93.8bn (up 24% YoY) was 10% and 12% ahead of

our estimates and consensus respectively. Key points: