US Autos & Industrial Tech: 5 days in 5 minutes

Research evidence excerpt

US Autos & Industrial Tech: 5 days in 5 minutes

Goldman Sachs US Autos & Industrial Tech

Notable industry data

n S&P Global Mobility published its July production forecast update and now expects:

o Global production to decline ~2.1% yoy to 91.1 mn units in 2026 from 90.7 mn

units (or down 2.6% prior), driven by a ~100K unit increase in Europe, ~100K

unit increase in North America, and ~300K unit increase in APAC (ex. China),

slightly offset by a ~200K unit decrease in China.

o For 2027, S&P Global Mobility now expects units to grow ~0.7% yoy to 91.8

mn units off of the higher 2026 base (from 91.6 mn or up 1.0% prior), with

downward revisions to China offset by upward revisions elsewhere.

n NHTSA posted updated AV crash data through June 15th. Per the data, Tesla

reported 3 accidents in May and 1 in June and Waymo reported 98 accidents in May

and 16 in June. Recall that the accidents are reported regardless of fault and include

smaller incidents that human drivers may not report (e.g. running over the curb). For

context, based on company disclosures of miles per month or per week, we estimate

that Tesla drove 500K miles driverlessly in May and 275K miles in 1H June, and

Waymo drove ~21 mn miles in May and ~11 mn miles in the partial June reporting

period (implying 150-300K miles between accidents). Between July 1st, 2025 and

June 15th, 2026, we estimate Tesla reported an accident every 130-140K miles and

Waymo reported an accident every 160K-180K miles. Importantly, recall that some

of Tesla’s vehicles in Austin still include a safety observer in the vehicle, so that is

potentially reducing the accident rate relative to what Tesla could have if all of its

vehicles were unsupervised (and both the miles traveled and accident data for this