CIO Brief

Research evidence excerpt

CIO Brief

CIO Brief July 19, 2026

KEY THEMATIC RESEARCH

Power Struggle: AI, Data Centers, Local Backlash

Local opposition has delayed or cancelled $286 billion of US data center projects since 2025, raising costs and extending

timelines. We still expect federal support, but tighter scrutiny could push 2026 AI capex below $877 billion, widen power

bottlenecks, accelerate onsite generation, and keep regional electricity inflation elevated. read more

El Niño Risks Rising into 2026/27: How to Play It — A Global Cross-Sector Guide

With an 81% chance of a very strong El Niño in 4Q26, we see a bottom-up trade favoring sugar, cocoa, select South

American farming equities, LatAm power, US ag chemicals, and scaled food retail, while Brazil grain, poultry, reinsurance,

and Pacific-coast airport stocks face greater risk. Most inflation and earnings effects should emerge in 2027, making the

run-up to peak intensity the key positioning window. read more

Nearshoring to Mexico: Debunking the Value-Add Myth; Auto vs. IT Hardware

Although there is a widely held view that the growth of Mexico’s IT hardware assembly sector adds low-value assembly

relative to the country’s important auto-related ecosystem, our proprietary analysis finds IT hardware offers value-add

intensity to autos, alongside ~1.2x higher value added per worker, ~5x remuneration per worker and superior capital

efficiency. We estimate IT hardware could become Mexico’s largest export vertical in 2026, supporting incremental industrial

real estate demand and prompting us to lift our 2027 GDP growth forecast to 1.9% from 1.7%. read more

KEY MACRO RESEARCH

Japan Economics: Fading Oil Shock, AI Capex, and the BoJ's Next Step