The Payroll Puzzle

Research evidence excerpt

The Payroll Puzzle

Cross Asset Research

19 July 2026

Global Portfolio Manager's Digest

The Payroll Puzzle SIGNATURE

We provide context and perspective on research across

regions and asset classes. This week, we analyze the effects of

US immigration policy on the labor market, take stock of the Equity Product Management Group

BoE's journey to transform its balance sheet, and examine Terence+ 1 212 526Malone*7578

terence.malone@barclays.comthe central bank landscape in Emerging Asia.

BCI, US

• Immigration and the Labor Market: June delivered a fourth consecutive monthly gain in Rob Bate*

+44 (0)20 7773 3576

nonfarm payrolls, lifting employment by 552k in the first half of the year. While the strength in

rob.bate@barclays.com

payrolls appears difficult to reconcile with the low breakeven and only modest decline in Barclays, UK

unemployment this year, changes in the status of recent immigrants may help explain part of

this. Recent NFP gains may have been supported in part by this reclassification and the FICC Product Management Group

issuance of new permits, rather than new arrivals. Moreover, the withdrawal of certain Jennifer Cardilli*

humanitarian protections last year likely led roughly 1mn immigrants to lose work +1 212 526 8351

jennifer.cardilli@barclays.com authorization and exit formal NFP employment in 2025. Our analysis suggests that some have

since regained work authorization through asylum-based pathways, and their return to

formal employment may have contributed to recent NFP employment gains. Taken together, Jill Nentwig*

we expect job gains to drift back down toward the breakeven rate of zero over time, after the + 1 212 526 5129

jillian.nentwig@barclays.com status transitions have ended. With new humanitarian arrivals at the southwest border