Base Metals Tracker

Research evidence excerpt

Base Metals Tracker

Commodities Research

20 July 2026 | 12:54AM BST

Base Metals Tracker: Copper: Physical Tightness vs. Fading Macro

n Copper’s price action last week has captured the tension n We attribute the recent tightening mostly to Lavinia Forcellese

+44(20)7774-9243 |

between tightening physical fundamentals and a less substitution from scrap into cathode rather than to end lavinia.forcellese@gs.com

Goldman Sachs International

supportive macro backdrop. The LME copper price rose demand. Tighter VAT enforcement on scrap in China has

Daan Struyven

to a weekly high of around $13,640/t as signs of physical constrained domestic scrap circulation and kept +1(212)357-4172 |

daan.struyven@gs.com

tightening strengthened, with Chinese inventories secondary rod output unusually weak, shifting Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

drawing sharply and LME cancelled warrants rising. It fabricators towards cathode-based rod (Exhibit 4). Samantha Dart

+1(212)357-9428 |

then briefly fell towards $13,400/t on Friday as broader Concentrated smelter maintenance had also weighed on samantha.dart@gs.com

Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

risk-off sentiment intensified amid renewed Middle East domestic cathode availability, with output falling month

tensions, more hawkish Fed repricing and Friday’s on month in June and remaining broadly flat YoY

sell-off in AI-linked chip stocks, before recovering to (Exhibit 5).

close at $13,526/t on Friday. n We expect the ex-US copper market to remain tight

n Our price decomposition shows that the AI complex has near term, with the continued US import pull on tariff

become an increasingly important driver of copper expectations drawing units away from an already thin

prices (Exhibit 1), less because current datacenter ex-US market, and low Chinese inventories and limited