Global Views: Renewed Escalation vs. Lower Inflation

Research evidence excerpt

Global Views: Renewed Escalation vs. Lower Inflation

Goldman Sachs Global Views

(-0.02%/2.6%) and trimmed-mean PCE (0.14%/2.3%) running lower. Moreover, changes

to the measurement of prices for software and accessories, portfolio management, and

legal services are likely to subtract a net 0.2pp from the year-on-year rate in September.

(Even with these changes, the contribution from software and accessories remains

overstated because these categories are not quality-adjusted and their weight in core

PCE looks excessive relative to either core CPI or price indices in other countries. The

BEA’s continued practice of measuring portfolio management fees in terms of dollars

rather than basis points—which creates a direct link with equity prices—is arguably also

a source of overstatement.) We expect year-on-year core PCE inflation to slow to near

2% in 2027, driven largely by reduced contributions from software and accessories,

energy pass-through, and tariff pass-through.

Exhibit 4: Temporary Drivers of Core PCE Inflation Are Likely to Subside Next Year

Percentage points Effects of Tariffs, Percentage points

2.0 Energy Prices, and Software Prices on 2.0

Year-over-Year Core PCE Inflation

Software & Acces. Effect GS forecast

1.6 Energy/Iran Effect 1.6

Tariff Effect

1.2 1.2

0.8 0.8

0.4 0.4

0.0 0.0

Jan-25 Jul-25 Jan-26 Jul-26 Jan-27 Jul-27

Source: Haver Analytics, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

5. Amidst the higher US core PCE numbers this year, it is worth noting how favorable the

inflation news has been almost everywhere else. Core inflation in the G10 ex-US—using

either the traditional ex food and energy definition or trimmed-mean measures—has

continued to trend down this year and now stands at 2.1%, despite the energy price

surge in March and April.