Air Products: Sustainable above-consensus EPS growth, even including NEOM

Research evidence excerpt

Air Products: Sustainable above-consensus EPS growth, even including NEOM

17 July 2026

James Hooper

+44 20 7676 6995

European Chemicals james.hooper@bernsteinsg.com

Sebastien AfoyAir Products & Chemicals Inc +44 207 762 1032

Rating sebastien.afoy@bernsteinsg.com

Outperform Specialist Sales

James Brady

Price Target +44 20 7762 5272

james.brady@bernsteinsg.com

APD 345.00 USD

Steve Song

+1 917 344 8401

steve.song@bernsteinsg.com

Air Products: Sustainable above-consensus EPS growth, even

including NEOM

Air Products has the lowest valuation of the industrial gas majors, and also the highest recent

Close Date 16 Jul 2026

EPS growth. This makes it attractive on paper - hence we write this report. In our view, growth

APD Close Price (USD) 297.29

can be at least in line with management’s plan and sell side consensus, and therefore the

Price Target (USD) 345.00

punishment of the multiple will become increasingly unjustified as APD continuesfollowing the

Upside/(Downside) 16%

industrial gas model and delivering results. We rate APD Outperform with a PT of $345.00.

52-Week Range 314.87/229.11

We think the base business can deliver the +HSD EPS growth promised by SPX 7,533.77

management sustainably. This EPS growth framework was based on roughly 3% FYE Sep

contributions each from pricing and productivity, base volumes, and projects, plus an Div Yield 2.4%

additional 1% from share buybacks once the balance sheet deleverages. We see the Market Cap (USD) (M) 66,201

numerical contributions a little differently, but we are confident that APD can deliver 9–10% EV (USD) (M) 86,108

annual EPS growth through 2030, supported by ongoing cost initiatives, attractive exposure Performance YTD 1M 6M 12M

to electronics and space, and easing helium headwinds. Absolute (%) 20.4 5.5 11.1 1.3