Quick Take on 2Q26 Earnings Result: Net Interest Income Growth Story Remains Intact

Research evidence excerpt

Quick Take on 2Q26 Earnings Result: Net Interest Income Growth Story Remains Intact

Update

July 17, 2026 08:01 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLCMSimmons First National Corp | North America Brian Wilczynski, CFA

Equity Analyst

Quick Take on 2Q26 Earnings Brian.Wilczynski@morganstanley.comManan Gosalia +1 212 761-1084

Manan.Gosalia@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-4092

Result: Net Interest Income

Simmons First National Corp (SFNC.O, SFNC US)

Midcap Banks | United States of AmericaGrowth Story Remains Intact

Stock Rating Equal-weight

Industry View Attractive

Price target $24.00

Reaction to earnings Shr price, close (Jul 16, 2026) $23.25

Mkt cap, curr (mm) $3,358

Unchanged Modest shortfall Largely unchanged 52-Week Range $23.91-17.00

Impact to our thesis Financial results versus consensus Direction of next 12-month

consensus EPS

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research

We remain above Simmons' NII guidance for 2026 at +12%,

expecting a beat and raise cadence in 2H as rates stay higher for

longer. Biggest risk for the stock is a further deterioration in

credit. Remain Equal-weight based on a balanced risk reward.

On the Quarter: Operating EPS of 50c missed MS / Consensus of 54c / 52c. The

biggest driver of the miss for 2Q was higher provision as NPLs increased by another

13bps Q/Q to 92bps driven by a single relationship fully migrating into

nonperforming status.

Looking Ahead: We Remain Slightly Above Simmons' 2026 NII Guidance at +12%.

• Coming out of earnings we are still modeling +12% NII growth for full year

2026; slightly above the high end of Simmons' up 9-11% guidance.

• This is supported by $900 mil of fixed rate loan repricing in 2H, ~1%

sequential loan growth in 3Q and 4Q each, and the benefit from paying