The Global 360: Global Economic Briefing

Research evidence excerpt

The Global 360: Global Economic Briefing

Global Foundation

July 17, 2026 05:22 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLCMGlobal Economic Briefing Seth B Carpenter

Chief Global Economist

The Global 360 Seth.Carpenter@morganstanley.comMorgan Stanley & Co. International plc (DIFC Branch)++1 212 761-0370

Rajeev Sibal

Our views around the world. SeniorRajeev.Sibal@morganstanley.comGlobal Economist +971 4 709-7201

Central banks remain vigilant about inflation pressures as oil prices remain volatile. Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., Ltd.+

We continue to model the worst of the oil shock is behind us, in line with futures Chiwoong Lee

Principal Global Economist

pricing and MS Oil forecasts. Such a path would allow a shift back toward neutral or Chiwoong.Lee@morganstanleymufg.com +81 3 6836-8920

easier monetary policy by year-end. In the United States, tariff disinflation adds

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC

further downward pressure. Real consumption growth should improve as inflation

Arunima Sinha

softens, while AI-led capex becomes the focal point for US growth and the Global Economist

broadening of AI capex supports Asian growth. Arunima.Sinha@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-4125

Mayank Phadke, CFA

United States: Oil payback pushed June CPI into negative monthly territory, with Economist

Mayank.Phadke@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-1531

core CPI printing -.02% m/m and PCE forecast at 0.17% m/m. Payroll growth slowed

Morgan Stanley India Company Private Limited+

to 57k in June, easing concerns that an accelerating labor market would drive wage-

Priyan Mody

led inflation pressures. AI and residual oil-linked inflation are the remaining upward Economist

forces without a firmer labor market. We expect tariff disinflation to more than Priyan.Mody@morganstanley.com +91 22 6996-1855