University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment for July: Sentiment improves

Research evidence excerpt

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment for July: Sentiment improves

UpdateM

Preliminary July University of Michigan consumer sentiment

survey

Headline consumer sentiment showed an improvement across components and income

cohorts. The largest increase was in the Current Economic Conditions component of the

survey. However, the University of Michigan survey team notes that more than 70% of the

survey interviews were conducted before July 7 (the full period of the survey interviews

was June 23 to July 13), so they would not reflect the increase in gas prices following the

resumption of US strikes on Iran.

Exhibit 2: Overall consumer sentiment improved across different components

July June M/M Y/Y

Preliminary April 2026 Survey

2026 2026 Change Change

Index of Consumer Sentiment 54.4 49.5 9.9% -11.8%

Current Economic Conditions 54.9 47.7 15.1% -19.3%

Index of Consumer Expectations 54.0 50.7 6.5% -6.4%

Source: University of Michigan, Morgan Stanley Research

The sentiment by income cohorts shows that in contrast to June (when the improvement

in sentiment was largely due to the families earning less than $100k/year), sentiment was

better across income cohorts. In the month of June, there was a sharp deceleration in

energy prices (down 5.7%m/m), and the easing price pressures at the pump were likely an

important contributor to the uptick in sentiment. There was also an increase in sentiment

across political affiliations.

Exhibit 3: The improvement in sentiment was across income Exhibit 4: The improvement in sentiment was across the

cohorts political spectrum

Univ of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index of Consumer Sentiment by Political Affiliation

95 110

75 80

55 50

Index of Consumer Sentiment

45 Families w/ inc< $100k/Yr