Industrial Production: Manufacturing Holds Steady in June: U.S. Data Pulse | North America

Research evidence excerpt

Industrial Production: Manufacturing Holds Steady in June: U.S. Data Pulse | North America

UpdateM

Manufacturing Holds Steady in June

Industrial production rose 0.1% m/m in June, below consensus expectations of 0.2%. May

was unrevised at 0.1%. Mining and utilities boosted the headline, while underlying

manufacturing momentum remained broadly unchanged. Overall, the report suggests that

underlying manufacturing activity held steady.

Underlying manufacturing activity

Nonauto manufacturing output fell 0.1% m/m. Nonauto manufacturing activity has

improved meaningfully since late 2024, swinging from contraction to expansion. In June,

nonauto manufacturing output was up 1.0% y/y, compared to 1.7% in May, and 0.7% a year

earlier. On a 3m/3m annualized basis, nonauto manufacturing output continued to expand

at 1.8%, suggesting underlying factory momentum remained constructive. We do not see

signs of interruption in underlying manufacturing strength despite uncertainty around

energy prices.

Manufacturing details

Within manufacturing, durable goods output fell 0.1%, with mixed performance across

sectors. Aerospace production fell 0.2%, while motor vehicle output rose 0.7%, marking

the third consecutive month of growth. Nondurable manufacturing output rose 0.2%,

boosted by petroleum and coal products, which increased 2.1%.

Industry breadth

Industry breadth improvement slowed down relative to May. Around 54.6% of industries

reported gains during the month, compared with averages of 56.8% in 2026Q1 and 48.4%

in 2025Q4. Meanwhile, 57.3% of industries reported gains relative to six months earlier,

suggesting underlying activity remained relatively broad-based.

Market-group details

On a market-group basis, consumer goods production rose 0.3% in June, while business