Monthly Tracker: June Data Deteriorated; Weaker 3Q Ahead

Research evidence excerpt

Monthly Tracker: June Data Deteriorated; Weaker 3Q Ahead

Idea

July 17, 2026 07:25 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+MChina Property | Asia Pacific Stephen Cheung, CFA

Equity Analyst

Monthly Tracker: June Data Stephen.Cheung@morganstanley.comCara Zhu +852 3963-0385

Cara.Zhu@morganstanley.com +852 2848-7117

Deteriorated; Weaker 3Q Ahead

Home sales softened further in June amid weaker home price

trends. We expect the continued slowdown in secondary home

sales to accelerate home price declines in 3Q, especially in Tier 2 China Property

and below cities that witness increasing inventory levels. Asia Pacific

Industry View In-Line

Stay selective: Considering potentially weaker property sales in 3Q, weak 1H

results, limited policy upside, and continued fund flow disruption, we still suggest Related reports:

sticking with quality players that have credible self-help alpha. We see CR Land 1. June-26 AlphaWise Survey: Better Sentiment,

(1109.HK), C&D (1908.HK), and Seazen (601155.SS/1030.HK) offering better risk/ but Still Limited Home Purchase Plans (14 Jul

reward at current valuation. 2026)

2. An Inflection or Another False Start? (18 May(-) Home sales decelerated: CREIS 65-city primary registered sales volume declined

2026)7% y-y in June (vs. +1% in May) and 33-city secondary registered sales volume rose

3. Managed Housing Downcycle to Last Another6% y-y (vs. +14% in May). This brought YTD sales to -14% y-y for primary and +7% y-

Two Years (25 January 2026)y for secondary. Also, Bingshan 25-city secondary real-time sales volume softened to

4. 2026 Outlook: Physical Market Stays+8% y-y MTD (vs. +10% in June), indicating potential further weakness in registered

Challenging; Diverging Outperformance ofsales ahead.

Alpha Plays (10 December 2025)