2Q KPIs: E&Ps, Majors & Canada

Research evidence excerpt

2Q KPIs: E&Ps, Majors & Canada

IdeaMFocus KPI Focus KPI Surprise Likely impact to consensus EPS*

Murphy Oil Corporation MUR.N

2026 Capex Likely downside surprise Largely unchanged

• Our 2Q oil volumes near guidance and total production slightly above due to lower royalties in Canada

• We forecast FY26 capex of $1,436 MM, above the guidance and consensus as we now assume higher spend

for the appraisal well in Cote d'Ivoire ($100-120 MM vs $50-70 MM prior)

Northern Oil & Gas Inc. NOG.N

Cash Flow and EBITDAX Likely downside surprise Modest revision lower

• Reflecting 2Q production and capex disclosed by the company earlier this week, our cash flow and EBITDAX

sits below consensus.

Occidental Petroleum Corp OXY.N

FCF outlook Likely upside surprise Modest revision higher

• We expect management to outline a multi-year FCF growth outlook including further cost reductions, lower

interest and preferred dividends, and slowing base declines.

• It's unclear whether this will include more refined '27 messaging, but we do forecast below-cons '27 spend

driven by flatish US Onshore and Intl, higher GoA and exploration, and lower LCV investment.

Ovintiv Inc OVV.N

Oil & condensate production, Capex In-line Largely unchanged

• We forecast 2Q oil & condensate production above the midpoint of guidance and in line with consensus.

• This reflects strong Permian well productivity partly offset by planned Montney plant turnarounds (already in

guidance and cons).

Permian Resources Corp PR.N

Oil Production, Capex In-line Largely unchanged

• We forecast 2Q oil production near the high end of annual guidance range.

• Our 2Q capex is 2% above consensus (peak for the year) as PR accelerates completion activity to capture

stronger oil prices.

Range Resources Corp. RRC.N