Orthogonal Central Banks: CEEMEA Economics Weekly | EEMEA

Research evidence excerpt

Orthogonal Central Banks: CEEMEA Economics Weekly | EEMEA

Update

July 17, 2026 03:30 AM GMT

RMB Morgan Stanley Proprietary LimitedMCEEMEA Economics Weekly | EEMEA Andrea Masia

Economist

Orthogonal Central Banks Andrea.Masia@rmbmorganstanley.comMorgan Stanley & Co. International plc +27 11 587-0820

Georgi Deyanov

The SARB will raise its policy rate by 25bp next week, in our EconomistGeorgi.Deyanov@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-7006

view. In contrast, we see the CBT remaining on hold and the Yomna Moheieldin

NBH easing 25bp. Economist

Yomna.Moheieldin@morganstanley.com +44 20 7677-0771

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South Africa | SARB Weighing its Options: The six member MPC meets next week

Recent Research Highlightsand we anticipate another lively debate as to the path of policy rates given

South Africa: London Trip Notes: Investors Thinkdownside risks to growth alongside more balanced risks to inflation. Ultimately we

We're Earlybelieve the committee will raise rates by 25bp despite a minority preferring to

Hungary: NBH Preview: Reducing Tightnesspause. Key considerations are likely to include include:

Egypt: CBE Review: Cautious Hold Maintained

• Oil prices have rolled over and are currently trading around 4% lower YTD Poland: NBP Review: On the Sidelines

than the SARB's full year estimate. The impact on headline CPI could be Israel: BOI Review: Uncertainties Remain

material, driven by downward revisions to July and August fuel assumptions. South Africa: What to make of inflation

On our estimates, the SARB's 3Q and 4Q 2026 CPI forecasts could drop by expectations?