Commodities Technical Advantage: Gold‘s lost year

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Commodities Technical Advantage: Gold‘s lost year

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Commodities Technical Advantage

Gold’s lost year

Market Analysis

View: Gold’s lost year may leave 2H26 vulnerable 16 July 2026

Gold's YTD correction reset an extremely stretched advance, but evidence of a durable Technical Strategy

low is questionable. While a TD Sequential downtrend exhaustion signal remains valid, a Global

death cross signal, elevated net-long positioning and similarities to major peaks in 1980 FICC and Equity

and 2011 raise the risk of a longer, deeper correction. If offered, we favor modest Paul Ciana, CMT

accumulation below $4,000, but with downside risks remaining more so adding in the Technical Strategist

$3,700-3,600 area and being allocated in the $3,450-$3,250 area. BofAS+1 646 743 7014

paul.ciana@bofa.com

Yearly: Secular uptrend at risk of a 2011-style correction Jonathan Hartley, CMT

The current cycle shares similarities with the major peaks of 1980 and 2011. This TechnicalBofAS Strategist

includes an ominous peak candle, a TD Setup “green 9” uptrend exhaustion signal and jonathan.a.hartley@bofa.com

RSI reaching 90. The three bear markets since 1970 retraced at least 50% of the prior

advance, implying downside risk toward $3,315, if 2026 proves to be a major top.

For more about technical analysis,

Weekly: This correction may need more time please see our primer: Technicals

The current correction is only 24 weeks old versus the prior 121-week advance. While Explained: In 2026, get to know

gold has exceeded the 38.2% retracement at $4,149, the correction remains technical strategy 26 January 2026

disproportionately short relative to the preceding uptrend. A rebound toward $4,325- For abbreviations, please see the