PJM BRA: Third time is not the charm, cap clearance again

Research evidence excerpt

PJM BRA: Third time is not the charm, cap clearance again

Accessible version

US Power & Utilities

PJM BRA: Third time is not the charm, cap

clearance again

Industry Overview

BRA clears at cap; results in line with expectations 15 July 2026

PJM’s 2028/2029 Base BRA cleared at the price cap of $325/MW-day, procuring 138.3 Equity

GW of UCAP. Including FRR commitments, total procured capacity reached 149.2 GW. United States

The result was broadly in line with expectations and marks the third consecutive cap- Utilities

clearing auction, reinforcing the tight supply-demand backdrop in PJM. Rinny Singh

Research Analyst

Deficit remains the key takeaway at 6.8 GWs BofAS+1 646 855 5729

The most important takeaway remains PJM’s persistent capacity shortfall. The auction rinny.singh@bofa.com

cleared approximately 6.8 GW (vs. 6.5 GW prior) below the reliability requirement, leaving Ross Fowler, CFA

reserve margins at 14.7% versus a 20% target, largely unchanged from prior auctions. ResearchBofAS Analyst

While cleared capacity increased year-over-year, the improvement was driven primarily +1 646 855 1506

ross.fowler@bofa.com

by accreditation changes (ELCC), fuel conversions, and participation rather than

F. Paul Cole

meaningful new supply. In our view, PJM remains structurally undersupplied. Research Analyst

BofAS

Cap underscores scarcity; COMED is a key pressure point paul.cole2@bofa.com

PJM’s no-collar simulation underscores the magnitude of the imbalance. Without the NicolasResearchWoodsAnalyst

temporary cap and floor, the auction would have cleared at $555/MW-day with only BofAS

nicolas.woods_barron@bofa.com

minimal improvement in capacity and reserve margins. Notably, COMED would have

David Rold, CFA