Tighter spreads and limited visibility on creditor negotiations; PO cut to R$4.5/sh

Research evidence excerpt

Tighter spreads and limited visibility on creditor negotiations; PO cut to R$4.5/sh

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Braskem SA-A

Tighter spreads and limited visibility on

creditor negotiations; PO cut to R$4.5/sh

Reiterate Rating: UNDERPERFORM | PO: 4.50 BRL | Price: 6.83 BRL

Faster Spread Normalization, Lower PO to R$4.5/sh 15 July 2026

We are revising our petrochemical spread assumptions to reflect a more challenging Equity

market environment, resulting in downward adjustments across most of our forecast

spreads. Consequently, we now project EBITDA of approx. US$1.90bn in 2026,

Key ChangesUS$1.35bn in ‘27, and US$1.40bn in ‘28. Reflecting these lower earnings expectations,

we reduce our DCF-based PO to R$4.5/sh (US$1.8/ADR) from R$7.5/sh (US$3.0/ADR). (BRL) Previous Current

Our DCF assumes WACC of 11.4% (from 11.6%), terminal growth rate of 2.5% Price Obj. 7.50 4.50

(unchanged). 2026E Rev (m) 77,854.6 70,554.5

50% sell-off, yet risks remain skewed to the downside 2027E Rev (m) 71,738.1 71,689.9 2028E Rev (m) 75,234.9 76,624.5

Braskem shares have declined 50% since late May. In our view, this reflects a 2026E EPS 9.96 3.88

combination of: 1) growing challenges in negotiations with creditors; 2) a faster-than- 2027E EPS -2.55 -6.83

expected normalization of petrochemical spreads amid softer demand following the de- 2028E EPS -8.47 -9.76

escalation of tensions in the ME; and 3) renewed developments surrounding the Alagoas

case, which have reignited concerns over additional provisions. Despite the sharp sell- Leonardo Marcondes >>

off, we remain cautious and reiterate our Underperform on Braskem. In addition to the Research Analyst

deterioration in industry fundamentals, visibility on creditor negotiations remains Merrillleonardo.marcondes@bofa.comLynch (Brazil)