Focus: What ELV’s quarter does and doesn’t mean for the group

Research evidence excerpt

Focus: What ELV’s quarter does and doesn’t mean for the group

es where it didn’t see LT financial viability. ELV believes that adjusting Q1 for prior CraigResearchJonesAnalyst

period items and flu, would get to a consistent Q1/Q2 cost growth, and assumes that BofAS

continues in 2H. July rate outlook was favorable (now assumes at the higher end of MSD +1craig.jones3@bofa.com646 743 2020

vs the lower end of MSD previously) but downplayed the flow through this year given the Joaquin Arriagada Martinez

timing. That said, it should have a larger impact in 2027 as it annualizes, and ELV Research Analyst

BofAS

reiterated confidence that 2026 would be the margin trough in Medicaid. +1 646 855 1654

joaquin.arriagadamartinez@bofa.com

Fischbeck focus: readthroughs to peers Katie FitzGerald

Research Analyst

We generally expect other MCOs to report stronger quarters, but given what drove BofAS

outperformance, there are positive readthroughs for UNH, ALHC (MA) as well as CNC +1 646 556 2930

katie.fitzgerald@bofa.com

and OSCR (exchanges). We are inclined to not read through ELV’s neutral Medicaid

commentary to peers after UNH’s positive commentary in May/June. And for commercial

employer, we see the inline commentary as neutral for CI and UNH.

Stock Data

Estimates (Dec) (US$) 2024A 2025A 2026E 2027E 2028E Price 390.33 USD

EPS 33.16 30.17 27.00 29.30 33.25

Price Objective 460.00 USD

GAAP EPS 25.67 25.21 20.98 27.85 31.69

EPS Change (YoY) 0.2% -9.0% -10.5% 8.5% 13.5% Date Established 4-Jun-2026

Consensus EPS (Bloomberg) 26.85 29.27 34.10 Investment Opinion B-1-7

Consensus EPS (Visible Alpha) 26.83 29.18 34.50 52-Week Range 273.71 USD - 436.24 USD

DPS 6.60 6.84 6.88 7.43 8.02 Mrkt Val (mn) / Shares Out 85,053 USD / 217.9

(mn)

Valuation (Dec) Free Float 99.7%